Let Them Eat Dirt: Surviving the Coming Food Crisis

By Rob C.

Art by Walt Handelsman

TL;DR: Trump’s war on Iran, not a war, but a war, has been such a roaring success that it’s killing people all over the world. By turning the Strait of Hormuz into a parking lot, with “Operation Epic Stupidity,” he’s managed to do what no weather event ever could: create a global food shortage. With the “lockade of the blockade in the Strait, the nitrogen and ammonia that keep the planet from starving are trapped behind a wall of warships. From maize failures in Africa to “shrimp and beer” shortages in the suburbs, we’re about to find out that you can’t eat gold-plated sneakers or “Truth” Social posts. While the Epstein Class is busy betting with insider information on Polymarket, we the peasants, may be left eating dirt.

Good morning. I hope you enjoyed your breakfast, because according to the current trajectory of the “not-war” in Iran, it might be one of the last ones that doesn’t involve a second mortgage.

Most people think of the Middle East as just a giant gas station for our SUVs. But Trump’s war—which he insists is a “historic success” even as the global supply chain has a heart attack—is actually a war on your wallet. We aren’t just talking about oil; we’re talking about the very chemicals that keep the “Food Revolution” from turning into the “Great Starvation.”

War on the World

Trump’s military excursion has created a crisis around the world, but I don’t want you to feel left out. The crisis will hit home soon.

If you thought the price of groceries was high now, just wait until the fertilizer shortage causes farmers across America to go out of business. Because Trump, in his infinite wisdom, decided to start a war, then blockade the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which one-third of the world’s fertilizer travels. A full third of nitrogen and ammonia products come from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Oman are the number one and number three producers. And Trump’s “Operation Epic Stupidity” has brought all traffic through the strait to a screeching halt.

The Nitrogen Bomb: No Gas, No Grass

Here’s how this works: No fertilizer = no crops. Modern agriculture depends on nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Among those, nitrogen is indispensable—you need it every single season. You can skip a year of potash. You can skip phosphates. But you cannot skip nitrogen.

And nearly 50% of the world’s traded urea—the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer—is exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz.

When the strait closed on March 2, urea prices jumped from around $400 to $700 per metric ton. In three months, prices have surged 77%. Nitrogen fertilizer prices could roughly double from current levels. Phosphate prices could climb 50%.

Farmers respond to this the only way they can: They stop using fertilizer. They plant less fertilizer-intensive crops. They reduce yields. And when yields drop, food prices spike and people starve.

The sad truth is that the U.S. has been largely shielded from the consequences of our fearless leader’s military excursion. We produce about 75% of the fertilizer we use thanks to abundant natural gas. But even American farmers are getting crushed. The cost of one ton of urea now equals 126 bushels of corn—up from 75 bushels in December. That’s a 68% increase in three months.

But the rest of the world? They haven’t been so lucky.

To make fertilizer, you need massive amounts of natural gas as a feedstock. But since the Strait of Hormuz has come to a “screeching halt,” that gas isn’t moving, the ammonia plants are idling, and the global planting season is officially a dumpster fire.

The “Epstein Class” is currently sipping champagne and checking their Polymarket portfolios to see how much they’ll make off their insider information, while the rest of us are left wondering if “dirt” counts as a complex carbohydrate.

🌍 The Global Hunger Games: 2026 Edition

The U.S. has been shielded so far by our domestic reserves and a media that refuses to look past the next “Breaking News” banner, but the rest of the world is already staring into the abyss.

Sub-Saharan Africa: This is the “canary in the coal mine.” They import over 90% of their fertilizer. In places like Sudan, the planting season for maize—the staple that keeps millions alive—is essentially canceled.

Nigeria has 27.2 million people in crisis-level hunger—the most in the world. Democratic Republic of Congo has 26.7 million. Sudan—in the middle of a civil war and confirmed famine—has 19.1 million. Somalia has 6.5 million, with commodity prices up 20% since the conflict began.

South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan): These nations are the world’s “fertilizer junkies.” They rely on Gulf natural gas for their domestic production. India has already slashed production, and when the rice crops fail in South Asia, the body count won’t fit on a ticker tape.

The Sahel belt—Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger—is experiencing simultaneous conflict, displacement, and collapsing harvests. Over 10 million people in these five countries alone are food insecure, with more than 900,000 in emergency situations and 45,000 facing famine.

Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand): These “Tiger Economies” are realizing they’re paper tigers without fuel. They have almost no storage capacity, meaning their transportation and agricultural machinery will stop the moment the next tanker is intercepted.

The Big Ag Exporters: Even Brazil and Australia—the world’s “breadbaskets”—are facing a catastrophic yield drop because they can’t get the nutrients their soil needs to perform.

And the fertilizer shock triggered by the Hormuz closure hasn’t even hit harvest data yet. The full impact won’t reach grocery shelves until Q3 and Q4 2026.

Translation: It’s going to get worse.

The “Shrimp and Beer” Crisis Hits Home

Don’t think you’re safe just because you live near a Whole Foods. The U.S. food system is a globalized web of “extractive” dependencies. We import a staggering amount of our daily diet: The “Healthy” Stuff: Most of your fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts are imported. The “Indulgences”: Say goodbye to your morning coffee and your evening cocoa. Even beer—that blue-collar staple—is at risk because of the processed ingredients and transportation costs. The Seafood Scam: Most of the shrimp and salmon on your plate traveled thousands of miles on ships that now can’t find fuel or a safe harbor.

“To the techno-fascists in the Heritage Foundation, a food shortage isn’t a tragedy; it’s a ‘market correction’ that allows them to consolidate even more land and power.”

Tears for the Rich

Don’t worry! The Epstein class is doing fine.

While 318 million people face crisis-level hunger across 68 countries—a number that has more than doubled since 2019—billionaires are sipping champagne and making insider bets on Polymarket about which countries Trump will bomb next.

And fertilizer traders? They’re making a killing. Literally. Urea futures contracts have seen double-digit price growth. When one analyst was asked about the crisis, he said: “I’m a lot more concerned about the current crisis than I was when Russia-Ukraine happened four years ago.” Because this is worse. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted fertilizer supplies and sent prices soaring. The Iran war is bigger, hitting more countries, with fewer resources available to contain it. The last time global food prices spiked on a comparable scale—2010-2011—four governments fell across the Middle East and North Africa. The 2026 crisis is larger in scale, broader in geography, and hitting countries with less fiscal capacity to absorb it.

Translation: Governments will fall. People will starve. And Trump will blame someone else.

Trump declared an energy emergency on day one to justify his looting the treasury. Turns out the real emergency is the food crisis his not-war created. But you won’t hear him admit that. He’ll blame Biden. Or Obama. Or immigrants. Or anyone except the guy who closed the strait and triggered global famine.

Let Them Eat Dirt

Because when farmers can’t afford fertilizer, they plant less. When they plant less, yields drop. When yields drop, food gets scarce. When food gets scarce, prices explode. If the Strait doesn’t reopen soon, we’re looking at multi-year food shortages.

And you know who doesn’t suffer when food prices explode? Billionaires. They’ll still eat caviar and truffles while you’re deciding between rent and groceries.

The sad truth is that we are paying for our own destruction. We give $20 billion a year in subsidies to the oil and gas industry so they can give it to the guy who started the war that’s destroying our food supply. It’s a closed loop of insanity.

As I’ve noted in Democracy for Sale, these “death dealers” don’t care if you’re eating dirt, as long as their profits continue to hit record highs. We need to demand a shift to regenerative, local agriculture and a grid that doesn’t rely on the whims of our “Big Mac Messiah” and his war-hawk generals. Otherwise, “Let them eat cake” is going to sound like a luxury we can no longer afford.

So enjoy your $6 bread, by fall, you’ll be nostalgic for the now low prices.

F*CK ICE, RELEASE ALL THE FILES!

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— Robert Cain, author of Democracy for Sale: How Corporate Greed Is Corrupting Democracy and Endangering the Planet.

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