By Rob C.
Art by John Cole
TL;DR: Trump’s “Peace Deal” has about as much structural integrity as a used piece of toilet paper. With the Strait of Hormuz closed again and Israel raining 100s of bombs on Lebanon, the ceasefire is officially dead. While Trump and “G.I. Jockstrap” Hegseth play semantic games about whether Lebanon was included in the deal, the reality is clear: Iran is now a geopolitical superpower, the US has lost its economic leverage, and the new authoritarian alliance of Russia, China, and Iran is currently holding the world’s energy supply by the throat. It’s the perfect shit-storm, and the bill is coming due.
Trump is currently strutting around declaring “victory,” which is interesting considering the “deal” he’s bragging about just dissolved in real-time.
Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing flagrant violations of the agreement by Israel. While the ink was still wet on the ceasefire, Israel unleashed a massive attack on southern Lebanon, killing over 200 unsuspecting civilians. Iranian and Pakistani diplomats are insisting that Lebanon was part of the deal; Trump and Pete Hegseth are denying it. Given this administration’s relationship with the truth, you’re better off taking their denials with a grain of salt the size of a golf ball and a double shot of whiskey.
Let’s examine how Trump’s “deal” fell apart approximately five minutes after he declared it a historic triumph, and what it reveals about the catastrophic shift in global power that Trump’s stupidity has accelerated.
Falling to Pieces
Trump’s deal fell apart quicker than a piece of cheap toilet paper. Iran has, once again, closed the Strait of Hormuz—citing violations of the ceasefire agreement by Israel.
Israel unleashing a massive attack on southern Lebanon, raining down hundreds of bombs on unsuspecting civilians, killing over 200 people. Just normal peacetime behavior. Nothing to see here. Iran and Pakistani diplomats stated that the ceasefire deal included Lebanon—meaning Israel agreed not to bomb Lebanese territory as part of the ceasefire terms. Israel, apparently, ignored that part. Because when has Israel ever felt bound by agreements, international law, or basic human decency?
Trump and G.I. Jockstrap Hegseth deny that Lebanon was included in the deal. They claim Iran is lying. They insist the ceasefire only covered Iran, not Lebanon.
But given Trump and Hegseth’s propensity for lying about literally everything, we should take their denial with a shot of whiskey. Or several shots. You’ll need them.
Either Trump’s team negotiated a ceasefire that didn’t actually include all parties to the conflict (incompetent), or they’re lying about what they agreed to (dishonest), or they never bothered to clarify terms and are now making it up as they go (both incompetent and dishonest).
Regardless, the “historic peace deal” Trump bragged about lasted approximately long enough for him to finish his press conference before Israel started bombing again and Iran closed the Strait.
Mission accomplished!
The Rise of the New Superpower
If this illegal war achieved one thing, it’s the coronation of Iran as a major world power. By controlling a 25-mile waterway, Iran has effectively neutralized Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” bluster. Their drones and mines are a nightmare to eliminate, and they have no intention of capitulating to a man who treats foreign policy like the TV game show, “let’s-make-a-deal”.
How Iran Won the War
They Control the Strait of Hormuz—a 25-mile waterway through which 20-30% of the world’s oil flows. They withstood combined Israeli and U.S. military attacks without collapsing. They forced major powers to negotiate on Iranian terms using oil leverage and demonstrated effective asymmetric warfare capabilities that rendered American military superiority less relevant.
Much of the Eastern world is now negotiating on Tehran’s terms. The US has officially lost its economic seat at the head of the table. Do the math. Trump’s “brilliant” strategy has forced Russia, China, and Iran into an authoritarian wedding of convenience. Combined, they are a larger economic force than the US. China is the world’s manufacturing giant; Russia and Iran combined now control 33% of the global oil market.
The United States has lost its economic leverage in the region. We can’t threaten sanctions when countries need Iranian cooperation to keep their economies running. We can’t isolate Iran when they control resources the world desperately needs.
Japan: Imports nearly 95% of its crude from the Middle East.
South Korea: Relies on the region for 65-70% of its oil.
India: Dependent on the Gulf for 50% or more of its energy.
Trump’s war didn’t weaken Iran. It strengthened their negotiating position while destroying America’s.
Trump hasn’t “made America great”; he’s shifted the global power structure to the worst players on the stage and left our allies in Asia holding an empty gas can.
When we combine the disastrous effects of Trump’s illegal war with his tariffs and his narcissistic alienation of our allies, we get a perfect shitstorm:
The Imperial Elephant in the Room
The corporate media and the AIPAC funded politicians refuse to acknowledge the root of the rot: Israel’s imperial ambitions. If we look at this objectively—stripping away the theocratic fairy tales and the emotional manipulation—the conflict is rooted in a decades-long land grab.
People love to rant about “Israel’s right to exist,” but do we apply that logic to anyone else? Does Russia have a “right to exist”? How about North Korea? China? Iran? No. Because “right to exist” is propaganda language designed to shut down criticism of Israeli policy by conflating the state with the people and suggesting any critique is existential denial. And more importantly: Where exactly does Israel exist right now? * Is it the 1967 borders recognized by the UN? Is it a total annexation of Palestine? Is it the Syrian Golan Heights? Is it all of Southern Lebanon?
(And for the trolls in the comments: I follow and support groups like Jewish Voices for Peace. Opposing war crimes isn’t anti-Semitic; it’s a requirement for being a functional human being.)
Killing the Peace: A History Lesson
We’ve been here before. In 1992, Yitzhak Rabin abandoned the use of force in favor of negotiations to achieve peace. He approved the Oslo Accords, negotiated in secret in Norway in 1993. Israel was to withdraw gradually from occupied territories and grant Palestinians self-determination. It wasn’t perfect. It had flaws. But it was progress toward actual peace instead of endless occupation and violence. For his trouble, he was assassinated by a religious fanatic in 1995. The “peace” was murdered along with him, replaced by the expansionist zealotry we see today.
A Military Solution:
If we actually wanted peace instead of “war profits,” the roadmap is simple, though it would give the defense contractors a heart attack:
Questions: Why does Hezbollah exist? Because Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied it for 18 years.
Why does Hamas exist? Because Israel funded them as a counter to the PLO to prevent Palestinian statehood.
Why does Iran oppose Israel? Because Israel has an undeclared nuclear arsenal, routinely bombs its neighbors, and pursues regional dominance that threatens Iranian survival.
Solution: A Complete Military Blockade of Israel: No more weapons, no more intel-sharing, and no more vetoing UN resolutions that seek accountability for war crimes.
Withdrawal: Remove all IDF soldiers from occupied territories and return Syrian and Lebanese land.
Accountability: Israel joins the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and submits to full IAEA inspections of its undeclared nuclear arsenal.
This would remove the primary motivations for the violence that has plagued the region since we destroyed Iran’s democracy in 1953.
Now, we are on the brink of economic catastrophe and nuclear escalation. The world order has shifted toward dictators while our “wannabe king,” Greedy McGolfy, worries about his handicap and his next military “excursion”. Watch out Cuba.
The question for us remains: Will “We the People” take our government back from the war profiteers, or are we content to let our kids inherit a radioactive gas station?
F*CK ICE. RELEASE ALL THE FILES!
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— Robert Cain, author of Democracy for Sale: How Corporate Greed Is Corrupting Democracy and Endangering the Planet. Available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Booksellers everywhere.