By Rob C.
TL;DR: Remember Donald Trump’s promises of “so much winning you’ll get sick of it”? Well, mission accomplished—except the people doing all the winning aren’t ordinary Americans. Turns out the winners of his unauthorized, catastrophic war of choice with Iran appear to be oil companies, private prison corporations, billionaire donors, the Trump family businesses, and, ironically enough, Iran. As the administration prepares to sign a humiliating Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, the American public is left holding a multibillion-dollar bill for a crisis that didn’t need to exist in the first place. So, after a costly confrontation that drove up energy prices and rattled global markets, we’re left with the same basic question we started with: What exactly did the American people gain from all of this?
Good morning, let’s make some good trouble.
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Cast your minds back to the golden era of campaign trail hyperbole, when our resident “Con-mander-in-Thief”—Donny Draft Dodger—proclaimed with absolute certainty that under his watch, America would experience “so much winning that you’re going to get sick and tired of winning.”
Well, it is 2026, and I don’t know about you, but I’m certainly feeling sick. “Tired” doesn’t even begin to cover it. But as for the winning part? Not so much. At least, not for us, the ordinary citizens watching our public infrastructure rot, our education systems crumble, and our healthcare costs skyrocket while the federal budget is systematically hollowed out to feed the largest military apparatus on earth.
But don’t despair—some people are winning spectacularly. Let’s look at the scoreboard. ExxonMobil is winning. The private prison industry is winning. The Trump crime family is winning.
And, in a twist of absolute diplomatic comedy, Iran is winning.
Now, let’s be entirely transparent here: I am absolutely no fan of the brutal Iranian regime. They are a cabal of murderous bastards who deserve exactly the same ruthless fate they have spent years dishing out to brave domestic protesters. But I am fortunate enough to have several friends who live inside Iran, and I understand a foundational truth that completely evades the brain trust currently occupying the West Wing: the ordinary people of Iran are not represented by their tyrannical government, any more than Trump’s corrupt, kleptocratic behavior represents the heart of all Americans.
Which brings us to the incoming geopolitical disaster of the week: the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran.
While the administration is doing its absolute best to keep the actual text of this framework hidden from the public until the formal signing ceremony in Geneva this Friday, the details trickling out from international mediators confirm what any sane observer already knew: Iran won the war.
Trump loves to brag about our military might. He treats the Pentagon like a personal extensions of his ego, a massive sledgehammer that drains the lifeblood out of domestic social programs. So, how did a nation with a fraction of our military spending and a heavily degraded conventional defense force manage to come out on top of this multi-month theater of violence?
One word: TRUMP.
Well, Trump and the absolute clown car of a cabinet he surrounds himself with. Ignoring every career diplomat, military strategist, and regional expert on the payroll, Trump launched this unprovoked war of choice without congressional authorization. Let’s call it what it was: an Epstein-class distraction. Looking to shift the domestic media narrative and play the big, tough wartime executive, he got right into bed with Benjamin Netanyahu to greenlight high-profile airstrikes.
And what did we get for all this performative machismo? “Winning!”
Predictably, the Iranians did the most obvious, telegraphed tactical move in the history of modern warfare: they retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. Because our “stable genius” commander didn’t think one move ahead on the geopolitical chessboard, the American public was forced to pay upwards of $60 billion extra in artificial gas and energy premiums just to subsidize Trump’s catastrophic hubris. While working families watched gas prices climb past $4.50 a gallon, fueling record-breaking inflation on everyday groceries, Big Oil giants raked in tens of billions in windfall profits over the first quarter of this year alone.
But wait, the terms of the “Art of the Deal” get even better. According to early readouts and statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the framework of this MOU reads less like a victory lap and more like an unconditional surrender of American leverage. Most key indicators point to the following baseline concessions:
Nuclear Preservation: Iran gets to keep its civilian nuclear program intact.
$24-25 billion in frozen Iranian assets get unfrozen. These are Iranian government funds that the US has been holding hostage for years through sanctions. Trump said he’d never let them be released. He’s releasing them.
The Massive Payout: The diplomatic pipeline is already whispering about a potential long-term reconstruction and reparations package that could value upwards of $300 billion.
And what about the actual threat? What about the highly enriched uranium (HEU) that Iran has been aggressively stockpiling since Trump unilaterally tore up the original nuclear accord years ago? The MOU completely punts on it. The text merely stipulates that both sides agree to “discuss” the nuclear program and uranium stockpiles at a later date during a 60-day ceasefire extension. It gives Iran immediate economic relief up front while systematically stripping the U.S. of any enforcement leverage before the actual nuclear talks even begin.
All of this spectacular “winning” has gained the United States exactly one thing: the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Let’s let that sink in for a moment. Before Trump decided to kick this hornets’ nest for prime-time television ratings, the Strait was already open. The oil was flowing, the global energy markets were stable, and the American consumer wasn’t getting shaken down at the pump to line the pockets of fossil fuel executives. We spent billions of dollars, risked global stability, and watched corporate interests cash in, all to negotiate our way back to a worse version of the status quo that Trump inherited and destroyed.
Faced with this absolute trainwreck of a foreign policy, Trump finds himself in a familiar, desperate corner. He has two options: he can swallow his pride and admit he made a devastating, multi-billion-dollar strategic error, or he can do what he has spent a lifetime perfecting.
He can lie about everything.
We are already seeing the narrative spin doctors at work. Trump has taken to social media to proclaim that the agreement means the Strait will be “permanently toll-free,” while the Iranian regime openly contradicts him on state media, declaring they fully intend to manage the shipping lanes and collect “service fees” from traversing vessels. It’s a total protection racket, rebranded as legal administration, and Washington is letting them slide just to get the headline.
THE ART OF THE LIAR
I guess this is the inevitable outcome when a country decides to put a fraudulent, bankrupt reality TV host in charge of the world’s most sophisticated military machine. The bitter lesson of 2026 is that unlimited military might only goes so far. Dropping bombs and executing unilateral blockades cannot substitute for actual statecraft. Sitting down and talking with people—genuine, clear-eyed diplomacy—is the only way to create lasting regional stability.
You would think that the guy whose name is plastered on The Art of the Deal would understand basic negotiation parameters. Oh, that’s right. He didn’t actually write the book. Tony Schwartz wrote it. Trump just put his name on it and took credit for someone else’s work. Which is, actually, a perfect metaphor for everything he does.
And the deals he has made lately? They’re all losses disguised as victories. SpaceX IPO at 94x sales. UFC event violating federal law on the White House lawn to pump his own stock holdings. Iran deal where he gets nothing and Iran gets $24+ billion and keeps its nuclear program.
So I guess if “winning” means “winning for billionaires and losing for everyone else,” then yeah. Trump’s winning.
The rest of us? We’re just paying the price of his terminal stupidity.
Keep your eyes open, and don’t let them rewrite the history of this manufactured crisis.
F*CK ICE. RELEASE ALL THE FILES!
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